Economists Warn of "Uneven" Job Recovery




The United States Congress and President Trump signed a stimulus for $2.2 trillion that was meant to spur the economy. Though what most media doesn't tell the public is how the money is actually handled. The average person thinks that politicians just somehow have this money lying around to give out. The truth is much more terrifying, in an economic sense. The Federal Reserve of the US is actually going to have to print the money out, which is what's scaring economists so much concerning the full recovery of the economy.

According to economic experts in the field, the issue isn't necessarily that the Fed is printing more money; rather, it's in the fact that there's no real time frame on when Americans can return to work. So while there will be some stimulus money given, it's mostly going to be going directly toward food, fuel and other living expenses like mortgages and utilities. Every other industry, which comprise in total around 85% of the US economy, will either be deemed nonessential or simply will not have people spending money with them.

In the Shenandoah Valley, an economist speaking to the Northern Virginia Daily said, paraphrased, that, "It's the bowling alleys and billiards rooms and dog groomers and all of those other [small businesses" that make economies grow and thrive. Without any [spending] 'they wither up and die." Economists rarely agree on anything, though this is an area where they have reached consensus. In fact, it's an axiomatic truth that everyone realizes, not just economists. If people aren't spending money with businesses, those businesses will fail. It's the simplest of arithmetic.

This leads economists to suggest that recovery is going to be "uneven." What they mean by this is that while some industries are going to continue thriving, others will all but fade away. Even after the economy starts to initially recover, those nonessential industries will have businesses that are playing catch-up. Their overhead will have piled up so much that it's hard to fathom how they will react to get back into the positive side of the column once they reopen.

It is speculated that some may hold what is essentially a "fire sale," in that they'll allow their stocked goods to be sold for a lower price, just to move product and jumpstart their returns. Others, however, will inevitably attempt to raise prices, so that they can recoup their losses in the shortest amount of time available. Neither approach is economically healthy or sustainable.

Panic Halts Progress

The real issue here is that the panic of the pandemic is what halts progress. For instance, even in states not experiencing a lockdown due to too few cases, small businesses are still very skittish and standoffish when it comes to doing business. Some places, like mom 'n pop butchers' shops and grocers are effectively price gouging due to panic. These things really get in the way of the economic wheel spinning smoothly. They cause bumps and skips and jumps and, according to economists, this is what's usually seen before a total collapse.

While there are only a few economists who go so far as to predict an entire economic collapse, the fact is that all the pieces are on the board for it to happen nationwide. Canada is fearing a legitimate depression right now, while America's in a recession. Many European nations are struggling to stay solvent. It's bad all over, to be sure, and panic just worsens the problems.

Half a Year of Downturn

Another thing that most economists can agree on is that it's going to take at least until 2021 to make a full recovery. Of course, some are fearing the absolute worst, and believe that even though we'll bounce back by 2021, things like hyperinflation will settle in and we'll be dealing with these issues all over again. Others believe, however, that we're going to be okay, as soon as all businesses bounce back and start doing business again.

There is no sure way to tell. In times like these, we'd like to lean on the experts for a clear path. Though the truth is that even those experts have conflicting opinions. After all, the World Health Organization (WHO) were the ones to initially say, using China's information, that Covid-19 had no person-to-person transmission and that we shouldn't wear face masks in public. Now look. Experts only know things when they know them; they're not fortune tellers.

The best everyone can do, most everyone agrees, is to try to stay calm through it all.





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